How does nhl draft lottery work

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Last updated: April 8, 2026

Quick Answer: The NHL Draft Lottery determines the order of selection for the first 16 picks in the NHL Entry Draft, primarily for non-playoff teams. Introduced in 1995 to prevent tanking, it uses a weighted system where the worst team has the highest odds (25.5% for first overall as of 2021). The lottery is held annually, typically in April or May, and involves drawing combinations to assign picks 1 through 16.

Key Facts

Introduced in 1995 to discourage teams from losing intentionally
Worst team has 25.5% chance at first overall pick (as of 2021 rules)
Covers first 16 picks in the NHL Entry Draft
Typically held in April or May each year
Uses weighted odds based on regular-season standings

Overview

The NHL Draft Lottery is an annual event that determines the selection order for the first round of the NHL Entry Draft, specifically for teams that did not qualify for the Stanley Cup playoffs. Established in 1995, it was created to address concerns about teams intentionally losing games late in the season (known as "tanking") to secure a higher draft position. Historically, before the lottery, the draft order was simply reverse order of the regular-season standings, which incentivized poor performance. The lottery system randomizes the top picks while maintaining weighted odds that favor the weakest teams. Over the years, the format has evolved, with significant changes in 2016 when the lottery was expanded to cover the top three picks instead of just the first overall. This system ensures that even the worst-performing teams have a chance at top prospects like Connor McDavid (drafted 1st in 2015) or Auston Matthews (2016), while adding an element of unpredictability to the draft process.

How It Works

The NHL Draft Lottery operates through a weighted probability system based on the regular-season standings of non-playoff teams. Each of these 16 teams is assigned a specific number of combinations in a lottery draw, with the team finishing last receiving the most combinations (1,000 out of 1,000 total as of 2021, equating to a 25.5% chance at the first overall pick). The lottery is conducted by drawing random four-number combinations from 1 to 14, corresponding to the assigned combinations. The process determines the top three picks sequentially: first, a combination is drawn to award the first overall pick, then another for the second pick (excluding the team that won first), and finally for the third pick. If a team wins a lottery pick, they can only move up a maximum of 10 spots, and no team can win more than two lottery draws in a five-year period. After the top three picks are set, the remaining non-playoff teams select in reverse order of their regular-season standings, followed by playoff teams in order of their postseason elimination.

Why It Matters

The NHL Draft Lottery significantly impacts team building and competitive balance in the league. By randomizing the top picks, it reduces incentives for tanking, encouraging teams to compete throughout the season even if playoff hopes are slim. This maintains fan engagement and integrity in the sport. For franchises, winning a lottery pick can be transformative, providing access to elite talent that can turn a struggling team into a contender, as seen with the Edmonton Oilers drafting Connor McDavid in 2015. The lottery also generates widespread media attention and speculation, making it a key event in the hockey calendar. It affects player development, as top prospects are thrust into high-pressure situations with rebuilding teams. Overall, the system promotes fairness while adding excitement, though it has faced criticism for not always rewarding the worst teams with the best picks, as evidenced by the Buffalo Sabres finishing last in 2015 but not winning the first overall selection.