What Is "If This Goes On—"

Overview

"If This Goes On—" is a science fiction novella written by Robert A. Heinlein that stands as one of his most significant early works. Published in Astounding Science Fiction magazine in February 1940, the story presents a chilling vision of America transformed into a theocratic state controlled by a religious dictator known only as "the Prophet." The novella's haunting title itself encapsulates Heinlein's core concept: the dangerous consequences of extrapolating troubling social and political trends into their logical, dystopian extremes.

The narrative unfolds in the 22nd century, where individual freedoms have been systematically stripped away in the name of religious doctrine. Set against this oppressive backdrop, Heinlein introduces readers to Captain John Lyle, a young officer in the Prophet's Army who holds a privileged position within the regime. The story becomes a pivotal moment of awakening when Lyle is recruited into a secret resistance movement that challenges the very foundation of his government's authority, forcing him to question everything he has been taught and believed.

How It Works

The novella's narrative structure follows Lyle's journey from unwitting servant of the theocracy to active participant in the underground resistance. Here's how the story develops:

• Recruitment and Exposure: Lyle is approached by members of a clandestine resistance movement who recognize his potential and his questions about the regime's legitimacy. Through secret meetings and underground literature, he begins to see the mechanisms of control that keep the Prophet's government in power.
• Ideological Conversion: As Lyle learns the truth about the regime's origins and methods, he undergoes a profound ideological shift from blind obedience to critical thinking. The resistance demonstrates how the government uses religious authority to justify surveillance, censorship, and elimination of political opposition.
• Systematic Repression: The story details how the theocratic system maintains control through secret police, informants, public executions, and the manipulation of religious doctrine to serve political ends. Citizens are constantly monitored, and any dissent is framed as heresy or disloyalty to the faith.
• Revolutionary Action: Lyle and the resistance movement plan and execute a coordinated uprising designed to overthrow the Prophet's government and restore democratic principles and individual freedoms to American society.
• Extrapolation of Trends: Throughout the narrative, Heinlein demonstrates how seemingly benign restrictions on freedom, accepted by previous generations, gradually accumulate into total authoritarianism when taken to their logical conclusion.

Key Comparisons

Why It Matters

• Early Dystopian Science Fiction: Published in 1940, "If This Goes On—" represents an important early contribution to dystopian science fiction, predating or coinciding with other foundational works in the genre and helping establish the conventions of speculative political fiction.
• Religious Authority Critique: While many classic dystopias focus on political or technological threats, Heinlein uniquely centered his story on the dangers of religious authoritarianism, offering a distinct perspective on how dogma can be weaponized for political control.
• Extrapolation as Warning: The novella's central thesis—that present-day restrictions on freedom can accumulate into total oppression—became a influential model for how science fiction explores the consequences of accepting incremental erosions of liberty.
• Influence on the Genre: The story influenced discussions about dystopia, theocracy, and resistance movements in science fiction for decades. It remains a touchstone for understanding how Heinlein approached political and social commentary through speculative fiction.

Decades after its publication, "If This Goes On—" continues to resonate because it presents a dystopia that feels disturbingly possible. By grounding his vision in recognizable human institutions—religious authority, military hierarchy, bureaucratic control—Heinlein created a world that serves as a mirror to real-world dangers. The novella stands as a powerful reminder of why vigilance against the concentration of power, regardless of its source, remains essential to preserving human freedom and dignity in any society.