Who is currently winning the war in ukraine

Overview

The Russo-Ukrainian War escalated dramatically on February 24, 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This followed eight years of conflict in eastern Ukraine that began with Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014. The current phase represents Europe's largest conventional military conflict since World War II, involving extensive international sanctions against Russia and unprecedented military support for Ukraine from Western nations.

Initial Russian advances in 2022 targeted Kyiv, Kharkiv, and southern regions, but Ukrainian resistance forced Russian retreats from northern areas by April 2022. The conflict then concentrated in eastern Donbas and southern regions, with both sides engaging in positional warfare characterized by extensive trench systems and artillery duels. By late 2023, the front lines had stabilized with limited territorial changes despite intense fighting.

International involvement has been crucial, with NATO countries providing Ukraine with advanced weapons systems including HIMARS rocket systems, Leopard tanks, and Patriot air defense systems. Russia has received military support from Iran and North Korea while facing comprehensive economic sanctions. The war has caused massive humanitarian displacement with over 10 million Ukrainians forced from their homes as of 2024.

How It Works

Military analysts assess war progress through multiple indicators including territorial control, equipment losses, and strategic objectives.

• Territorial Control Metrics: Ukraine liberated approximately 54% of Russian-occupied territory between September 2022 and November 2023 through successful counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson regions. However, Russia maintains control of about 18% of Ukrainian territory including Crimea and parts of Donbas. Recent Russian advances in 2024 have focused on capturing key cities like Avdiivka and making incremental gains in eastern sectors.
• Military Capability Assessment: Ukraine's military has transformed significantly with Western training and equipment, developing combined arms operations capabilities. Russia has adapted with extensive defensive fortifications, electronic warfare systems, and increased drone usage. Both sides face ammunition shortages, with Ukraine dependent on Western supplies and Russia utilizing stockpiles and production from allies.
• Economic and Industrial Capacity: Ukraine's economy contracted by 29% in 2022 but showed recovery in 2023 with Western financial support exceeding $100 billion. Russia's economy has proven resilient to sanctions through energy exports and military production increases. Both nations have mobilized industrial sectors for war production, though Russia maintains advantages in scale.
• International Support Dynamics: Western military aid to Ukraine surpassed $100 billion by 2024, with the United States providing approximately $75 billion. Russia receives drones from Iran and artillery shells from North Korea while developing domestic production. Sanctions have limited Russia's access to advanced technology but haven't crippled military production.

Assessing "winning" requires considering multiple timeframes: tactical victories in specific battles, operational successes in campaigns, and strategic progress toward war objectives. Ukraine aims to restore territorial integrity while Russia seeks to secure conquered territories and potentially expand control in eastern regions.

Types / Categories / Comparisons

Different analytical frameworks provide varying perspectives on war progress assessment.

The territorial perspective shows Russia maintaining significant occupied areas despite Ukrainian counteroffensives. From a military capability viewpoint, Ukraine has dramatically improved its forces but faces challenges breaking through fortified lines. Strategically, neither side has achieved decisive victory, leading to a war of attrition where endurance and external support become critical factors.

Real-World Applications / Examples

• Kharkiv Counteroffensive (September 2022): Ukraine liberated over 12,000 square kilometers in northeastern Ukraine in a rapid offensive using combined arms tactics and Western intelligence. This demonstrated Ukraine's ability to conduct successful large-scale operations and forced Russian redeployments. The success was enabled by HIMARS systems targeting Russian supply depots and command centers.
• Battle of Bakhmut (2022-2023): This ten-month battle became the longest and bloodiest of the war, with estimates of 100,000+ casualties total. While Russia eventually captured the city, the prolonged defense allowed Ukraine to build defensive lines elsewhere and inflict heavy losses on Wagner Group forces. The battle exemplified attrition warfare with both sides committing significant resources.
• Kherson Liberation (November 2022): Ukraine's successful campaign in southern Ukraine forced Russian withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River, liberating Kherson city. This represented a strategic victory as Russia abandoned its only regional capital capture. The operation combined artillery superiority, special forces operations, and cutting Russian supply lines across the Dnipro.

These examples illustrate how battlefield outcomes depend on multiple factors including equipment quality, troop morale, intelligence capabilities, and logistical support. Ukraine's most successful operations have involved surprise, combined arms coordination, and exploiting Russian vulnerabilities. Russia has demonstrated strength in defensive operations and artillery-intensive assaults on fortified positions.

Why It Matters

The war's outcome has profound implications for global security architecture. A Ukrainian victory preserving territorial integrity would reinforce international norms against territorial conquest and strengthen collective security mechanisms. Conversely, Russian success could encourage further aggression and undermine the rules-based international order. The conflict has already reshaped European defense policies, with increased military spending and NATO expansion.

Economically, the war has disrupted global energy and food markets, contributing to inflation worldwide. Ukraine's agricultural exports, crucial for global food security, have been severely impacted by Black Sea blockades. Reconstruction costs are estimated at $400+ billion, requiring massive international investment. The conflict has accelerated energy transition efforts in Europe while creating new trade patterns.

Looking forward, the war's duration and eventual settlement will influence future conflicts. Developments in drone warfare, cyber operations, and economic sanctions provide lessons for military planners globally. The outcome will determine whether nations can successfully resist aggression with international support or if larger powers can achieve objectives through military force despite economic costs and diplomatic isolation.