Who is winning the war in ukraine

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Last updated: April 17, 2026

Quick Answer: As of June 2024, the war in Ukraine remains a stalemate with incremental gains by both sides. Ukraine retook approximately 1,200 sq km in the 2023 counteroffensive, while Russia controls about 18% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea and parts of Donbas. No side has achieved decisive victory, and fighting continues along a 1,000-km front line.

Key Facts

Russia occupies approximately 18% of Ukraine’s internationally recognized territory as of mid-2024.
Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive regained around 1,200 sq km of land, primarily in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
Over 500,000 military casualties have been reported on both sides since February 2022, according to UK intelligence (March 2024).
Russia launched over 4,000 drone attacks on Ukraine in the first five months of 2024 alone.
Ukraine received $65+ billion in military aid from the U.S. and allies between 2022–2024.

Overview

The war in Ukraine, which began with Russia’s full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, has evolved into a grinding war of attrition. Despite significant international support for Ukraine, no side has achieved a decisive breakthrough as of mid-2024.

Frontline positions have shifted only incrementally, with heavy fighting concentrated in eastern regions like Donetsk and Luhansk. While Ukraine has made tactical gains, Russia maintains control over key infrastructure and population centers.

Kyiv’s 2023 counteroffensive succeeded in retaking approximately 1,200 sq km of territory, mainly in the south near Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, though it fell short of liberating major cities.
Russia currently occupies about 90,000 sq km of Ukraine, or roughly 18% of its total territory, including Crimea, annexed in 2014.
Ukrainian forces have destroyed over 7,000 Russian armored vehicles as of May 2024, according to Oryx, a conflict monitoring group.
Russia has launched more than 4,000 Shahed-type drones at Ukrainian targets in 2024, aiming to degrade air defenses and demoralize civilians.
Both sides have suffered over 500,000 combined casualties, including killed, wounded, and captured personnel, as estimated by British intelligence in March 2024.

How It Works

Understanding the current state of the war requires analyzing military, economic, and geopolitical dynamics shaping the conflict. Key terms and strategies define how each side sustains operations and influences global perception.

War of Attrition: The conflict has settled into a prolonged war of attrition, where both Russia and Ukraine rely on manpower, artillery, and supply lines to wear down the other.
Western Military Aid: The U.S. has provided over $43 billion in military assistance since 2022, including HIMARS, Patriot systems, and Abrams tanks.
Drone Warfare: Ukraine has pioneered the use of commercial drones for reconnaissance and attacks, destroying over 1,500 Russian artillery pieces by early 2024.
Sanctions Impact: Western sanctions have reduced Russia’s GDP growth but not halted its war economy, which grew by 3.6% in 2023 due to defense spending.
Mobilization: Russia has mobilized over 400,000 troops since 2022, while Ukraine has called up multiple reserve waves to maintain frontline strength.
Energy Warfare: Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukraine’s power grid, launching over 1,000 missiles and drones at energy infrastructure since 2022.

Comparison at a Glance

Key metrics illustrate the relative strengths and challenges of both nations in the ongoing war.

Metric	Ukraine	Russia
Territory Controlled	Approx. 82%	Approx. 18%
Military Aid Received (2022–2024)	$65+ billion	N/A
Artillery Systems Destroyed (Oryx)	Over 1,500	Over 1,200
Drone Production (Est. Monthly)	20,000+	10,000+
Active Military Personnel	600,000+	1.3 million

The table highlights Ukraine’s reliance on Western support and technological innovation to offset Russia’s numerical and industrial advantages. While Ukraine produces more drones and integrates AI faster, Russia maintains superiority in artillery stockpiles and manpower.

Why It Matters

The outcome of the war will shape European security, energy markets, and the future of international law. A Russian victory could embolden further aggression, while Ukrainian resilience has galvanized NATO unity.

NATO Expansion: Finland and Sweden have joined NATO since 2022, directly responding to Russian aggression and enhancing northern defense.
Global Food Supply: Ukraine remains a top grain exporter, and Black Sea disruptions have previously spiked global food prices by up to 20%.
Arms Race: The war has accelerated global military spending, with 70+ countries increasing defense budgets in 2023.
Refugee Crisis: Over 6 million Ukrainians remain displaced, creating long-term social and economic challenges in Europe.
Legal Precedent: The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin over alleged war crimes.
Energy Shift: Europe has reduced Russian gas imports from 40% to under 10% since 2022, accelerating renewable investments.

The war’s prolonged nature underscores the importance of sustained diplomatic and military support. While no side is clearly winning, Ukraine’s determination continues to challenge Russian dominance.